John Hayden of Massachusetts

The genetic distance between members of the John of MA group  is shown below. The superscript on the Kit number is the number of markers tested. The genetic distances correspond to the number of markers of the pair with the least number.


Kit
N1869767 8142437 4775337 4792637 2532067 2569425 8057637 10094567 20076267 350616111
N1869767
X









8142437
2
X








4775337
4
4
X







4792637
7
7
5
X






2532067
5
4
2
3
X





2569425
4
5
4
2
2
X




8057637
5
5
3
2
3
3
X



10094567
4
4
2
5
3
3
3
X


20076267
8
9
7
6
5
3
6
6
X

350616111 5
5
3
1
1
2
2
3
4
X


The pedigree chart  below shows project members pedigrees who are either well documented descendants of John Hayden of Massachusetts or have hypothesized connections to this line as indicated by the ? in the diagram. Being placed in this group is determined by the test subjects DYS# 390 and 391 values. These DYS#s have the
rare values of 22 and 9 respectively. In the databases available for R1b haplogroup, only  1% have a value of 22 at DYS# 390. Only 0.3% have a value of 9 at DYS# 391. Other than the kits in the pedigree diagram above, I have been unable to find any other R1b's with this combination of values. Statistically, the chance would be about 1% times 0.3% or 0.003% (3 in 100,000) of someone possessing this combination.

This rare combination of values plus the fact that both DYS# 390 and 391 occur in the first panel of 12 markers has important consequences for this group. As has already been stated, possessing this pair of values quickly places one in the descendant of John group (or possibly his ancestors). Additionally, only the low resolution (and also lowest cost test) is required to determine membership in John's group. This will help in our search for our English cousins. If, and when, we find English Haydens who agree to test, the test cost will be minimal.



There are four well documented pedigrees in this group; 80576, 47926,  47753 and 100945. We can calculate the probabilities of the common ancestors shown using the FamilyTreeDNA calculator.

The probability that John is the common ancestor of 80576, 47926 and 100945 is about 22%. Since we know that John is the common ancestor, there has been more than expected mutations along the two lines. This is good news as it will help determine the most likely connection points for not so well documented pedigrees. Two members, 100945 and 25320, are at 67 markers. The probability that they common ancestor is John is 26%.

Likewise, the calculator probabilities for the other well document lines is 18% that Samuel is the common ancestor of 47926 and 47753 and 15% that John is the common ancestor of 80576 and 47753. These probabilities then indicate that at the typical mutation rate for this group, one cannot rule out a common ancestor with a probability of 15% or higher. Hypothesized common ancestors with probabilities below 15% are questionable and require further documentary evidence to prove.

The following table shows the allele differences at the DYS# where they occur. Documented descendants of Samuel s/o Nehemiah are highlighted in pale yellow.

DYS# / Kit #
80576
100945
47926
25694
25320
47753
200762
350616
N18697
81424
439
12
12
12
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
437
15
15
15
14
15
15
15
15
15
15
458
17
17
18
18
18
17
18
18
16
15
464 d
18
18
18
18
18
17
18
18
18
18
GATAH4
12
12
12
NM
12
12
12
12
11
11

First, consider the line of Jacob (Kit # 25964). There is high confidence that Jacob descends from the line of John because of the 390/391 combination values. However, whether or not Jacob is the son of Nathaniel as shown in the pedigree diagram is problematic. Using the FamilyTreeDNA calculator, the probability that 25694 and 47926 share Nathaniel as the most recent common ancestor is about 5% which is considerably less than 15%. The FamilyTree DNA calculator assumes the the 439 and 437 mutations could occur along either 47926's or 25694's lines. Note that 25694's values for these two DYS#s is unique meaning both mutations would have to have occurred in the line of Jacob. The probability for one of these markers to mutate is about 1.5% and for both about 0.02%! Either a very small likelihood event has occurred along the line of Jacob or this line connects to another line which does not yet have a member in the Project.

Next look at DYS# 458 which has a value of 18 for the descendants of Nathaniel and Christopher but 17 for the descendant of their brother, William. This means the mutation to 17 likely occurred at William or later.

Likewise, Kit #350616 is likely a descendant of Nehemiah through either Nathaniel or Christopher. This is confirmed by John W Hayden's birth place in Allegheny Co., PA, where Nathaniel and Christopher had settled.

Both Nathaniel and Christopher had sons named Ebenezer. However, what is known about Nathaniel's son Ebenezer matches more closely what is know about Kit # 25320's Ebenezer.  Consequently, it is believed that 25320 descends through Nathaniel. Of course a documented descendant of Christopher joining the project would provide confirmation.

Kit #s N18697 and 81424 are surname Hyden but are definitely connected to John because of the 390 and 391 values. N18697 and 81424 differ from all other project members at DYS#'s 458 and GATAH4 so it is not possible, at this time, to identify a possible connection to the other Project members. The probability that N18697 and 81424's common ancestor is within 2 generations back from John is only about 17% when calculated with the three documented lines. One has to exercise caution with these probabilities. N18697 and 81424 share a common Hyden ancestor within 5 generations. The FamilyTreeDNA calculator gives this only a 13% probability. Since John is the emigrant from England, the common ancestor likely lived in England prior to emigration.
If William Hayden descended from John, it would likely be from a son or grandson based on the dates. If the common ancestor did live in England prior to emigration to America, the similarity of the surnames Hayden and Hyden indicates the surname of these lines was not changed upon emigration and thus these lines connect to a Hayden/Hyden line in England.

80576 has a web site at http://freepages.genealogy.rootsweb.com/~haydenfamilyalbum/index.htm.


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