The pedigree chart below shows
project
members pedigrees who are either well documented descendants of John
Hayden of Massachusetts or have hypothesized connections to this line
as indicated by the ? in the diagram. Being placed in this
group is determined by the test subjects DYS# 390 and 391 values. These
DYS#s have the rare values of 22
and 9 respectively. In the databases
available for R1b
haplogroup, only 1% have a value of 22 at DYS# 390. Only 0.3%
have a value of 9 at DYS# 391. Other than the kits in the pedigree
diagram above, I have been unable to find any other R1b's with this
combination of values. Statistically, the chance would be about 1%
times 0.3% or 0.003% (3 in 100,000) of someone possessing this
combination.
This rare combination of values plus the fact that both DYS# 390 and 391 occur in the first panel of 12 markers has important consequences for this group. As has already been stated, possessing this pair of values quickly places one in the descendant of John group (or possibly his ancestors). Additionally, only the low resolution (and also lowest cost test) is required to determine membership in John's group. This will help in our search for our English cousins. If, and when, we find English Haydens who agree to test, the test cost will be minimal.
This rare combination of values plus the fact that both DYS# 390 and 391 occur in the first panel of 12 markers has important consequences for this group. As has already been stated, possessing this pair of values quickly places one in the descendant of John group (or possibly his ancestors). Additionally, only the low resolution (and also lowest cost test) is required to determine membership in John's group. This will help in our search for our English cousins. If, and when, we find English Haydens who agree to test, the test cost will be minimal.
There are four
well documented pedigrees in this group; 80576, 47926, 47753 and
100945. We can
calculate the probabilities of the common ancestors shown using the
FamilyTreeDNA calculator.
The probability that John is the common ancestor of 80576, 47926 and 100945 is about 22%. Since we know that John is the common ancestor, there has been more than expected mutations along the two lines. This is good news as it will help determine the most likely connection points for not so well documented pedigrees. Two members, 100945 and 25320, are at 67 markers. The probability that they common ancestor is John is 26%.
Likewise, the calculator probabilities for the other well document lines is 18% that Samuel is the common ancestor of 47926 and 47753 and 15% that John is the common ancestor of 80576 and 47753. These probabilities then indicate that at the typical mutation rate for this group, one cannot rule out a common ancestor with a probability of 15% or higher. Hypothesized common ancestors with probabilities below 15% are questionable and require further documentary evidence to prove.
The following table shows the allele differences at the DYS# where they occur.
First, consider the line of Jacob (Kit # 25964). There is high confidence that Jacob descends from the line of John because of the 390/391 combination values. However, whether or not Jacob is the son of Nathaniel as shown in the pedigree diagram is problematic. Using the FamilyTreeDNA calculator, the probability that 25694 and 47926 share Nathaniel as the most recent common ancestor is about 5%. However, the probability is considerably less than 5%. The FamilyTree DNA calculator assumes the the 439 and 437 mutations could occur along either 47926's or 25694's lines. Note that 25694's values for these two DYS#s is unique meaning both mutations would have to have occurred in the line of Jacob. The probability for one of these markers to mutate is about 1.5% and for both about 0.02%! Either a very small likelihood event has occurred along the line of Jacob or this line connects to another line which does not yet have a member in the Project.
Next look at DYS# 458 which has a value of 17 for the descendants of John, S/O John, Jonathan and William, S/O Samuel. This means the mutation to 18 likely occurred at Nathaniel or later for 47926. This also supports Ebenezer as the son of Nathaniel rather than Christopher as it is unlikely that the mutation would occur for both Nathaniel and Christopher and not William. And, yes, this also supports Jacob being a son of Nathaniel.
Kit #s N18697 and 81424 are surname Hyden but are definitely connected to John because of the 390 and 391 values. N18697 and 81424 differ from all other project members at DYS#'s 458 and GATAH4 so it is not possible, at this time, to identify a possible connection to the other Project members. The probability that N18697 and 81424's common ancestor is within 2 generations back from John is only about 17% when calculated with the three documented lines. One has to exercise caution with these probabilities. N18697 and 81424 share a common Hyden ancestor within 5 generations. The FamilyTreeDNA calculator gives this only a 13% probability. Since John is the emigrant from England, the common ancestor likely lived in England prior to emigration. If William Hayden descended from John, it would likely be from a son or grandson based on the dates. If the common ancestor did live in England prior to emigration to America, the similarity of the surnames Hayden and Hyden indicates the surname of these lines was not changed upon emigration and thus these lines connect to a Hayden/Hyden line in England.
80576 has a web site at http://freepages.genealogy.rootsweb.com/~haydenfamilyalbum/index.htm.
< Return to Results
The probability that John is the common ancestor of 80576, 47926 and 100945 is about 22%. Since we know that John is the common ancestor, there has been more than expected mutations along the two lines. This is good news as it will help determine the most likely connection points for not so well documented pedigrees. Two members, 100945 and 25320, are at 67 markers. The probability that they common ancestor is John is 26%.
Likewise, the calculator probabilities for the other well document lines is 18% that Samuel is the common ancestor of 47926 and 47753 and 15% that John is the common ancestor of 80576 and 47753. These probabilities then indicate that at the typical mutation rate for this group, one cannot rule out a common ancestor with a probability of 15% or higher. Hypothesized common ancestors with probabilities below 15% are questionable and require further documentary evidence to prove.
The following table shows the allele differences at the DYS# where they occur.
| DYS#
/ Kit # |
80576 |
100945 |
47926 |
25694 |
25320 |
47753 |
N18697 |
81424 |
| 439 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
| 437 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
| 458 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
17 |
16 |
15 |
| 464
d |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
18 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
| GATAH4 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
NM |
12 |
12 |
11 |
11 |
First, consider the line of Jacob (Kit # 25964). There is high confidence that Jacob descends from the line of John because of the 390/391 combination values. However, whether or not Jacob is the son of Nathaniel as shown in the pedigree diagram is problematic. Using the FamilyTreeDNA calculator, the probability that 25694 and 47926 share Nathaniel as the most recent common ancestor is about 5%. However, the probability is considerably less than 5%. The FamilyTree DNA calculator assumes the the 439 and 437 mutations could occur along either 47926's or 25694's lines. Note that 25694's values for these two DYS#s is unique meaning both mutations would have to have occurred in the line of Jacob. The probability for one of these markers to mutate is about 1.5% and for both about 0.02%! Either a very small likelihood event has occurred along the line of Jacob or this line connects to another line which does not yet have a member in the Project.
Next look at DYS# 458 which has a value of 17 for the descendants of John, S/O John, Jonathan and William, S/O Samuel. This means the mutation to 18 likely occurred at Nathaniel or later for 47926. This also supports Ebenezer as the son of Nathaniel rather than Christopher as it is unlikely that the mutation would occur for both Nathaniel and Christopher and not William. And, yes, this also supports Jacob being a son of Nathaniel.
Kit #s N18697 and 81424 are surname Hyden but are definitely connected to John because of the 390 and 391 values. N18697 and 81424 differ from all other project members at DYS#'s 458 and GATAH4 so it is not possible, at this time, to identify a possible connection to the other Project members. The probability that N18697 and 81424's common ancestor is within 2 generations back from John is only about 17% when calculated with the three documented lines. One has to exercise caution with these probabilities. N18697 and 81424 share a common Hyden ancestor within 5 generations. The FamilyTreeDNA calculator gives this only a 13% probability. Since John is the emigrant from England, the common ancestor likely lived in England prior to emigration. If William Hayden descended from John, it would likely be from a son or grandson based on the dates. If the common ancestor did live in England prior to emigration to America, the similarity of the surnames Hayden and Hyden indicates the surname of these lines was not changed upon emigration and thus these lines connect to a Hayden/Hyden line in England.
80576 has a web site at http://freepages.genealogy.rootsweb.com/~haydenfamilyalbum/index.htm.
< Return to Results