The genetic distance
between members of the John of MA group is shown below. The superscript on the Kit number is the number of
markers tested. The genetic distances correspond to the
number of markers of the pair with the least number.
Kit
N18697^{67}
81424^{37}
47753^{37}
47926^{37}
25320^{67}
25694^{25}
80576^{37}
100945^{67}
200762^{67}
350616^{111}
N18697^{67}
X
81424^{37}
2
X
47753^{37}
4
4
X
47926^{37}
7
7
5
X
25320^{67}
5
4
2
3
X
25694^{25}
4
5
4
2
2
X
80576^{37}
5
5
3
2
3
3
X
100945^{67}
4
4
2
5
3
3
3
X
200762^{67}
8
9
7
6
5
3
6
6
X
350616^{111}
5
5
3
1
1
2
2
3
4
X
The pedigree chart below shows project members
pedigrees who are either well documented descendants of John
Hayden of Massachusetts or have hypothesized connections to
this line as indicated by the ? in the
diagram. Being placed in this group is determined by the
test subjects DYS# 390 and 391 values. These DYS#s have
the rare values of 22 and 9
respectively. In the databases available for R1b
haplogroup, only 1% have a value of 22 at DYS# 390. Only
0.3% have a value of 9 at DYS# 391. Other than the kits in the
pedigree diagram above, I have been unable to find any other
R1b's with this combination of values. Statistically, the
chance would be about 1% times 0.3% or 0.003% (3 in 100,000)
of someone possessing this combination.
This rare combination of values plus the fact that both DYS#
390 and 391 occur in the first panel of 12 markers has
important consequences for this group. As has already been
stated, possessing this pair of values quickly places one in
the descendant of John group (or possibly his ancestors).
Additionally, only the low resolution (and also lowest cost
test) is required to determine membership in John's group.
This will help in our search for our English cousins. If, and
when, we find English Haydens who agree to test, the test cost
will be minimal.
There
are four well documented pedigrees in this group; 80576,
47926, 47753 and 100945. We can calculate the
probabilities of the common ancestors shown using the
FamilyTreeDNA calculator.
The probability that John is the common ancestor of 80576,
47926 and 100945 is about 22%. Since we know that John is
the common ancestor, there has been more than expected
mutations along the two lines. This is good news as it
will help determine the most likely connection points for
not so well documented pedigrees. Two members, 100945 and
25320, are at 67 markers. The probability that they common
ancestor is John is 26%.
Likewise, the calculator probabilities for the other well
document lines is 18% that Samuel is the common ancestor
of 47926 and 47753 and 15% that John is the common
ancestor of 80576 and 47753. These probabilities then
indicate that at the typical mutation rate for this group,
one cannot rule out a common ancestor with a probability
of 15% or higher. Hypothesized common ancestors with
probabilities below 15% are questionable and require
further documentary evidence to prove.
The following table shows the allele differences at the
DYS# where they occur. Documented descendants of Samuel
s/o Nehemiah are highlighted in pale yellow.
DYS# / Kit #
80576
100945
47926
25694
25320
47753
200762
350616
N18697
81424
439
12
12
12
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
437
15
15
15
14
15
15
15
15
15
15
458
17
17
18
18
18
17
18
18
16
15
464 d
18
18
18
18
18
17
18
18
18
18
GATAH4
12
12
12
NM
12
12
12
12
11
11
First, consider the line of Jacob (Kit # 25964).
There is high confidence that Jacob descends from the line
of John because of the 390/391 combination values.
However, whether or not Jacob is the son of Nathaniel as
shown in the pedigree diagram is problematic. Using the
FamilyTreeDNA calculator, the probability that 25694 and
47926 share Nathaniel as the most recent common ancestor
is about 5% which is considerably less than 15%. The
FamilyTree DNA calculator assumes the the 439 and 437
mutations could occur along either 47926's or 25694's
lines. Note that 25694's values for these two DYS#s is
unique meaning both mutations would have to have occurred
in the line of Jacob. The probability for one of these
markers to mutate is about 1.5%and for
both about 0.02%! Either a very small likelihood event has
occurred along the line of Jacob or this line connects to
another line which does not yet have a member in the
Project.
Next look at DYS# 458 which has a value of 18 for the
descendants of Nathaniel and Christopher but 17 for the
descendant of their brother, William. This means the
mutation to 17 likely occurred at William or later.
Likewise, Kit #350616 is likely a descendant of Nehemiah
through either Nathaniel or Christopher. This is confirmed
by John W Hayden's birth place in Allegheny Co., PA, where
Nathaniel and Christopher had settled.
Both Nathaniel and Christopher had sons named Ebenezer.
However, what is known about Nathaniel's son Ebenezer
matches more closely what is know about Kit # 25320's
Ebenezer. Consequently, it is believed that 25320
descends through Nathaniel. Of course a documented
descendant of Christopher joining the project would
provide confirmation.
Kit #s N18697 and 81424 are surname Hyden but are
definitely connected to John because of the 390 and 391
values. N18697 and 81424 differ from all other project
members at DYS#'s 458 and GATAH4 so it is not possible, at
this time, to identify a possible connection to the other
Project members. The probability that N18697 and 81424's
common ancestor is within 2 generations back from John is
only about 17% when calculated with the three documented
lines. One has to exercise caution with these
probabilities. N18697 and 81424 share a common Hyden
ancestor within 5 generations. The FamilyTreeDNA
calculator gives this only a 13% probability. Since John
is the emigrant from England, the common ancestor likely
lived in England prior to emigration. If
William Hayden descended from John, it would likely be
from a son or grandson based on the dates. If the common
ancestor did live in England prior to emigration to
America, the similarity of the surnames Hayden and Hyden
indicates the surname of these lines was not changed upon
emigration and thus these lines connect to a Hayden/Hyden
line in England.