To date, four documented descendants of Francis have joined the project. Y-chromosome DNA data has confirmed that three other project members are descendants of Francis and are likely connected to the same Francis line as N14500. Further, all project test results are for, at least, 37 markers while N34201 and 80211 are 67 marker results. We are able to draw some interesting conclusions about this line.

The pedigrees of Kits 80574, 80211, N14500 and 105312 are well documented. The genetic distance between the Kits is 1 to 5 at 37 markers which means there has been a higher than expected number of mutations in the line since Francis. For example, the FamilyTreeDNA calculator predicts a 28% probability that George is the common ancestor of Kits 80211 and N14500 even though this is known to be the case. The calculator predicts a 28% probability that William is the common male ancestor of N14500 and 105312.  Likewise, an 8% probability is calculated for Francis to be the common ancestor of Kits 80574 and 80211.

This is good news for unattached descendants of Francis as it helps to connect to known lines. To illustrate how this works, lets first look the DYS# values for which there is a difference in the allele values between the descendants of Francis. These are shown in the following table.

The Y-chromosome pattern of Francis is known as the ancestral signature. We can estimate the probabilities of along which pedigree lines mutations from the ancestral signature occurred. DYS markers mutate at different rates. For our estimates here, assume an average of 0.3% chance a mutation will occur at a generation change.

Looking at DYS # 391 and CDY-a, one sees that Kit 80574 is unique from all the other kits with values of 10 and 34 respectivly. Since there are 8 generations between Francis and Kit 80574, there is a 8 x 0.3% = 2.4% chance that the mutation occurred along the line of John, S/O Francis, for each or 2.4% x 2.4% = 0.6% both occurred along the line of John and the values of 11 and 35 are the anccestral signature. This seems like a very small chance but it is greater than the other possibilities. If 10 and 34 are the ancestral signature then the mutations would have have occurred with the generation change between Francis and William or between William and George and the other three project members would have to connect at George or later. Since only two generation changes are involed in this senario, the probability of one mutation occurring 0.6% and both 0.004%. This is a much smaller probability for either one or both of the mutations to occur at William or George. Of course, these two mutations could have occured along each of the five lines. However, the probability of this happening is 0.00001% or less for each DYS#. In any case, any new project member with vales of 10 at 391 and 34 at CDY-a, most likely connects somewhere to the line of John.

One can carry this analysis further by looking at DYS# 389-1. The value of 13 is common to N14500, 105312, and the unconnected lines. Therefor, it is likely that the unconnected lines connect at William S/O George or later. The values of 464 c suggest the connection is at Thomas or after. There is about a 2% probability that DYS 460 mutated along the line of N34201 after any connection with the other lines.

This all also suggests the the line most likely closest to the ancestral signature is that of 80211. This member also has 67 marker results. Edward Heydon is of the English Watford line. It would be very helpful if a male Heydon known to to descend from the Watford line would join the project to confirm the connection of Francis as shown.




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